Economic Battles Take Center Stage
Rising economic clashes between major powers—through sanctions, tariffs, and other measures—are now seen as the greatest threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. The report, released ahead of the WEF’s annual Davos meeting, draws on the insights of over 1,300 leaders and experts from business, government, academia, and civil society.
Geoeconomic confrontation topped the list, outranking other pressing risks such as misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and armed conflicts between states. Half of those surveyed expect a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, a sharp rise from 36% in last year’s report, while only 9% anticipate stability. Looking further ahead, a majority foresee prolonged global instability over the next decade.
“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks—from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt—and changes our collective capacity to address them,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi. “But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”
Short-Term Economic and Geopolitical Concerns
Geoeconomic tensions ranked highest in terms of likelihood and severity, with 18% of respondents saying they could trigger a global crisis in 2026. State-based armed conflict came second for immediate risks but fell to fifth place in the two-year outlook.
According to the report, ongoing rivalries and conflicts threaten supply chains, economic stability, and international cooperation. Trade policies, particularly those involving tariffs, have disrupted global commerce and strained both consumer and business budgets worldwide. Economic risks such as downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and potential asset bubbles also rose sharply, signaling potential volatility in global markets.
In addition, 68% of respondents anticipate a “multipolar or fragmented” global order in the next decade, highlighting the growing complexity of international relations.
Long-Term Threats: Technology, Society, and the Environment
Beyond economic pressures, other risks are gaining attention. Misinformation and disinformation rank second in near-term concerns, while cyber insecurity is sixth. The potential negative impact of artificial intelligence surged in the long-term outlook, jumping from 30th to fifth place, reflecting growing fears over AI’s effects on jobs, security, and society. Societal polarisation and inequality also remain significant, with inequality identified as the most interconnected risk for the second consecutive year.
Environmental threats, while ranking lower in the short-term, dominate the decade-long outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are seen as the most severe risks, with three-quarters of respondents predicting a turbulent environmental future.
Zahidi emphasized the importance of collaboration, noting: “The challenges highlighted in this report—spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks—underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
