Beef prices in the United States have reached record highs, creating a growing political problem for Donald Trump. The former president, who once declared inflation “dead,” now faces mounting criticism as the cost of beef threatens his promise to bring grocery prices down. This week, he urged ranchers on social media to lower their cattle prices. But his message — and his administration’s ideas — have drawn backlash from ranchers, who warn that his plans could devastate producers without reducing costs for shoppers.
Fewer ranchers, fewer cows, higher prices
The US cattle industry has been shrinking for decades. The number of cattle ranchers has steadily declined since 1980, cutting domestic supply while demand remains strong. The national cattle inventory is now at its lowest point in nearly 75 years. Since 2017, the US has lost more than 150,000 cattle ranches — a 17% drop, according to Agriculture Department data.
Ranchers say consolidation in the meat industry has made it harder for them to compete. The dominance of a few large meat processors limits options for selling cattle. Rising prices for fertiliser, feed, and machinery have added even more pressure. Years of drought have forced many to cut their herds dramatically.
In Illinois, rancher Christian Lovell said his once-green pastures have dried up. “You put all these together and you have a recipe for a really broken market,” said Lovell, who works with Farm Action, an agricultural advocacy group.
Consumers feel the sting of beef inflation
Beef inflation has hit American consumers harder than almost any other food. Retail prices for ground beef rose 12.9% over the past year, while beef steaks jumped 16.6%, according to government figures. A pound of ground chuck now averages $6.33, up from $5.58 a year earlier. Overall food inflation stands at just 3.1%.
“The cattle herd has been shrinking for years, but Americans still want beef,” said Brenda Boetel, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, River Falls.
Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, said prices are unlikely to drop anytime soon. He expects beef costs to remain elevated until the end of the decade because rebuilding herds takes years. Peel added that Trump’s administration has few practical ways to influence prices in the short term.
Trump’s import idea sparks rancher revolt
The Agriculture Department this week unveiled a major plan to strengthen domestic beef production. It includes opening more grazing land and supporting small meat processors. The announcement came as Trump suggested increasing beef imports from Argentina — possibly quadrupling the current amount — a move that infuriated US ranchers.
Eight House Republicans sent a letter to the White House warning that Trump’s plan could harm domestic producers. Even the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, normally supportive of his policies, said the idea “creates chaos during a critical time for producers while doing nothing to lower grocery prices.”
Trump defended his position, highlighting tariffs that restrict Brazilian beef imports. “They have to get their prices down,” he wrote. “The consumer is a big factor in my thinking.” But his comments did little to quiet the anger.
Justin Tupper, president of the US Cattlemen’s Association, said the plan would mostly benefit the four major meat-processing corporations. “I don’t see that lowering prices here at all,” he said.
The power of big meat processors under fire
Experts say solving the beef crisis requires addressing the dominance of a handful of powerful companies. Four corporations — Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — control more than 80% of the US beef slaughtering and packing market.
“These are consolidated markets gouging ranchers and gouging consumers,” said Austin Frerick, an agricultural and antitrust expert at Yale University.
The big processors face multiple lawsuits, including one from McDonald’s accusing them of inflating beef prices through collusion. Earlier this year, Trump repealed a Biden-era order that had pushed agencies to tackle corporate concentration in food production. Still, his administration has launched new investigations into competition in agriculture.
The long road to rebuild America’s herds
In Kansas, rancher Mike Callicrate has survived by bypassing major processors and selling beef directly to consumers through his own stores. But he said most ranchers cannot afford to do the same. Many have already left the business and see no reason to return.
“We’re not going to rebuild this cow herd — not until we address market concentration,” Callicrate said. He supports plans to open more grazing land but warns, “Without a fair market, you’re a fool to get into the cattle business.”
Bill Bullard, head of the trade group R-CALF USA, closed his 300-cow ranch in South Dakota in 1985 as the industry consolidated. He said ranchers only recently began earning better prices because supplies have dropped so low that processors are forced to pay more.
Still, Bullard said ranchers lack faith in the market. Heavy dependence on imports and the power of meat packers make them wary of expansion. “He’s focused on the symptoms, not the problems,” Bullard said of Trump’s approach.
For now, beef prices remain one of the biggest economic burdens for Americans — and one of the toughest political tests for Trump’s promise to make food more affordable.
